The new Atlas of the Human Planet reveals 50 years of global population growth and urbanisation trends, providing insights into how cities and rural areas have evolved. This data offers vital tools for addressing future climate, social, and economic

How understanding past and present population patterns helps shape the future

The way humans are spread on planet Earth results from complex relationships shaped over millennia. Open data and geo-information from satellites allow us to understand the dynamic interplay between humans (and our settlements) and the landscapes and ecosystems we are part of and dependent upon. By combining long-term datasets, monitoring present conditions and future projections, invaluable data is generated.

Understanding trends and patterns – like population growth or urban density – makes it possible to assess vulnerability to disasters, environmental pressures, or economic dynamics with greater accuracy and from a wider perspective. This information alongside other data such as the characteristics of cities and their cultures, can support policymakers and urban planners in anticipating and responding to climate or socio-economic challenges.

This is why the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre published the Atlas of the Human Planet 2024. Through maps, charts and storylines, the Atlas shows the multi-sectoral implications of human development and urbanisation. It shows how a healthy planet is inextricably linked to human actions and how some actions - like protecting and restoring Earth’s ecosystems - are choices that we can – and must – make.

Never have humans spread so quickly to (mega) cities

The global population has nearly doubled from four billion people in 1975 to just under eight billion in 2020. Today, 45% of the world’s population lives in cities, while 35% live in towns and semi-dense areas. Only 20% live in rural areas.

Today there are more than 11 thousand cities worldwide – compared with 6,400 cities in 1975. Urbanised areas consume 75% of energy resources, leading to 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions. They are the drivers of climate change whose effects put people and settlements at risk. These harmful effects include increases in the number and intensity of natural hazards like floods and wildfires, fuelling sea level rise and aiding the spread of diseases carried by migrating insects.

Along with built-up surface, high population density is the most visible sign of urbanisation. Tokyo, for example, is one of the world’s most populous cities, with over 37 million people living in the metropolitan area. The city’s famous Shibuya Crossing is one the world’s busiest pedestrian crossing, where up to 3,000 people can cross the road when traffic lights turn green.

Megacities: many people, large economies and big challenges

With a population of around 34 million people, Tokyo is one of the world’s largest 32 megacities, all which have over ten million inhabitants. Most megacities are in the Americas and in Asia – with the latter hosting the largest megacity, Guangzhou-Shenzhen, along with other giants like Jakarta, Shanghai, and Delhi, each with populations exceeding 25 million.

Among these, Delhi stands out, as its rapid population growth and expansion of built-up areas are projected to outpace other megacities by 2030. Meanwhile, for the remaining 27 megacities, each with under 25 million inhabitants, the combined land surface area covered by buildings accounts for up to 800 km². They all typically hold vibrant cultures and large economies while also facing pollution and waste management issues, environmental degradation and housing or public services challenges.

One prime example of the pressure faced by megacities is Mexico City, which due to the lack of rainfall or access to other water sources, overexploited the available groundwater. This had unforeseen impacts on underground stability and increased the likelihood of severe earthquakes. Luckily, the city’s risks and natural hazards are now being addressed through a governance structure supported by international institutions which is helping to alleviate these problems. Despite these challenges, Mexico City continues to inspire and attract people from all over the world.

The efficiency in the use of resources is one of the benefits of these highly populated areas. However, it also often means increased exposure to heatwaves or floods in the absence of mitigation strategies. As such, coordinated efforts for renewable energy use, green building practices or efficient public transport are essential pathways to ensure the liveability of large cities in the near future. Planning these requires detailed and updated spatial information, such as data provided by the Copernicus Global Human Settlements Layer (GHSL).

Towns lighten city pressures while rural areas feed the world

Towns and semi-dense areas typically cover more land area than cities and their economic activity is generally more modest. They often deal with rapid urbanisation and the administrative and economic challenges it brings. Often, there isn’t capacity to manage long-term strategies and collaborations with private stakeholders, which may favour “bottom-up” initiatives instead.

Most of the world’s consumption is global, but sparsely populated rural areas are where most food and resources are produced or extracted for national and global markets. These areas often have limited infrastructure and restricted access to basic services like electricity or healthcare. Although distant from most people’s eyes, these rural areas are highly exposed to extreme weather events, with crops often being severely impacted by droughts or floods.

With livelihoods threatened, the dependency on agricultural productivity is increased and the use of intensive agricultural practices often come at an environmental cost.

Through the identification of population areas in rural settings, the GHSL can help to ensure that development strategies safeguard nature and are combined with health protection measures including protection from pesticides that are often used for intensive agriculture.

The GHSL simplifies international comparison by providing a worldwide common definition for rural areas, supporting the prioritisation of financial resources and technical assistance to support rural developments.

Living in hazardous areas

Some settlements are more at risk from natural hazards than others, depending on the characteristics of the local environment and natural processes like floods, earthquakes, or diseases. The structure and layout of these settlements play a role in how vulnerable they are.

People living close to river areas are a good example. Throughout history, rivers have been vital to the survival and prosperity of civilizations by providing clean water and fertile land for agriculture. However, while essential for life, rivers can also be destructive, causing damage to infrastructure, natural ecosystems and people during floods.

Knowing the size of settlements and the number of people at risk is crucial to prevent damage and make post-disaster assessments. By showing where people live and which buildings are located in areas at risk of flooding (or coastal erosion, earthquakes, etc.), GHSL data can support policymakers, planners, and emergency responders in creating plans to reduce the impact of disasters before or while they happen.

For example, during the floods in Central Europe in September 2024 as a result of storm Boris, the Copernicus Emergency service was activated to prepare detailed emergency maps showing the extent of the damage. Thanks to the integration of the GHSL layer, it was possible to estimate where people were affected.

Background

• The EU has a unique capacity, through its Copernicus Space Programme, to observe the world autonomously. With over 20 years of research, the JRC is at the forefront of mapping human presence on Earth from space: our buildings, our cities, and our population.
• The Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) and the information described and presented in this Atlas are the result of more than a decade of research on the extraction of information on human settlements from Earth Observation (EO) satellite images, and the integration of data from different sources.
• The integration of the GHSL to the Group on Earth Observations Human Planet Initiative (GEO HPI) contributes to the ambition of GEO to generate user-driven Earth intelligence solutions that inform decisions and accelerate action on global, societal and environmental challenges.
• Horizon Europe projects are also benefitting from the data behind the GHSL. The many Horizon projects that address local and regional geographical areas are complementing in a bottom-up approach the global GHSL data. Similarly, the GHSL datasets - in a top-down approach - can provide the regional perspective to data collected at more local level from Horizon Europe projects.
• Within the GHSL framework, the first step is the extraction of information on built-up areas (i.e. built-up surface, building height, built-up volume, residential / non-residential classes) from satellite images. Subsequently, population grids are obtained by distributing the information on residential population, collected from national population census data, over the built-up areas mapped from the EO data.
• These population grids are used to generate a map of settlement types based on the Degree of Urbanisation, which classifies the population grids into cities, towns and semi-dense areas, and rural areas. The map of settlement types can then be used to generate indicators for comparing urban areas across the world.
• The development of GHSL is supported by the Directorate-General for Regional and Urban Policy. It provides a base layer for collecting regional and urban statistics used to monitor the impact of the cohesion policy and a standard for comparing the performance of cities and rural areas worldwide.