Global fossil CO2 emissions are expected to grow 0.8% in 2024, despite predictions of peak emissions. The positive progress in many countries and clean technologies is offset by persistent fossil fuel use.
On the 13th of November, the Global Carbon Project (GCP) publishes its 19th annual analysis of trends in the global carbon cycle in the journal Earth System Science Data Discussions1, including a full-year projection for 2024.
Global fossil CO2 emissions2 are expected to grow 0.8% in 2024 (with an uncertainty3 range of -0.3% to 1.9%). This is higher than the average growth rate of 0.6% per year over the last ten years and builds on a growth of 1.4% in 2023.
Global fossil CO2 emissions are now 8% higher than in 2015, the year the Paris Agreement was negotiated.
“The scene is set for peak global fossil CO2 emissions, but the world continually finds ways to burn ever more fossil fuels,” said Glen Peters, a Senior Researcher at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research. “It has been going to peak every year for the last 10 years, but emissions still have not peaked”.
Coal, oil, and natural gas continue to grow
Global CO2 emissions from coal use are expected to grow 0.2% in 2024 [-1.0% to 1.4%], reaching another record high. Coal was expected to be the first fossil fuel to peak but has grown strongly the last four years. The growth in coal in 2024 arises from growth in India and China, a small decline in the USA, and a large decline in the European Union (EU27).
CO2 emissions from oil use are expected to grow 0.9% in 2024 [0.0% to 1.8%], primarily due to an increase in international aviation. CO2 emissions from oil use have now returned to their 2019 levels, after their drop during the COVID pandemic in 2020.
CO2 emissions from natural gas have returned to strong growth of 2.4% in 2024 [+1.1% to 3.8%], returning to the sustained 2% per year seen before the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The growth in natural gas in 2024 is driven by China and numerous smaller countries (rest of the world).
Fossil CO2 emissions edged up in China
Fossil CO2 emissions in China are projected to grow a small 0.2% in 2024 [-1.6% to 2.0%]. 2024 could mark the peak or the start of a long plateau for Chinese CO2 emissions, but this remains uncertain.
“China has had another record year of growth in renewable power, but coal power also kept growing due to even faster growth in electricity demand from high-tech industries and residential consumption.” said Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Senior Researcher at CICERO, who makes the projections for Chinese emissions.
“A continued slump in construction and low growth in heavy industry pushed coal consumption and CO2 emissions down outside the power sector. If these trends continue and renewable power keeps up the pace, it’s conceivable that emissions will decline or at least stay flat after 2024,” Korsbakken said. He nevertheless cautioned that a drop in emissions in 2024 also looked likely in late 2023, but that has apparently not happened.
Indian fossil CO2 emissions are projected to increase 4.6% in 2024 [3.0% to 6.1%] as the economy continues to grow strongly, leading particularly to high growth in demand for electricity.
“The majority of this new electricity demand is met by using existing coal-fired power stations more, with a smaller share met with new renewables,” said Robbie Andrew, a Senior Researcher at CICERO who does the projections for India and the EU and compiles the historical fossil CO2 emissions data.
International aviation is projected to rise by 13.5% over 2023 (4.8% below 2019 levels), while international shipping is projected to rise by 2.7% (2.9% below 2019 levels). Combined, they remain below their 2019 pre-pandemic level by 3.5%.
Fossil CO2 emissions decline strongly in the European Union
In the European Union (EU27) fossil CO2 emissions are projected to decrease 3.8% in 2024 [-6.2% to -1.4%], following a steeper decline of 8.4% in 2023. Coal had a steep decline of 16%, with a moderate decline for gas of 1.3%, and slight rise in oil use. Strong growth in renewables is driving emissions down, in the presence of weaker economic growth and high energy prices.
Fossil CO2 emissions in the USA are projected to decrease by 0.6% in 2024 [-2.9% to +1.7%]. Coal continues its long-term decline, but at a slower rate in 2024, with the decline in coal tempered by a slight growth in gas use. Natural gas and renewables continue to out-compete coal in the power sector, and coal-fired power stations continue to decline in number.
“Emissions from coal use in the USA are the lowest they’ve been for more than 120 years,” said Andrew.
CO2 emissions from land-use change continue their uncertain trend downwards
Global net CO2 emissions from land-use change (LUC4) averaged 4.1 GtCO2 per year for the past decade (2014-2023) with a preliminary projection for 2024 of 4.2 GtCO2. The projected rise in LUC emissions in 2024 is driven by fire emissions linked to deforestation in South America, exacerbated by the temporary El Niño conditions.
Global net land-use change CO2 emissions show a decline over the past two decades. The decline of 28% between the late-1990s (1995-2004) and the most recent decade (2013-2023) is caused by both decreasing emissions from deforestation and increasing removals from afforestation, reforestation, and land abandonment.
Total CO2 emissions combine estimates of fossil CO2 emissions and CO2 emissions from land-use change.
Total CO2 emissions (fossil plus LUC) grew 0.2% per year in the last ten years and are projected to be 41.6 GtCO2 in 2024, a 2% rise and a record high. Over the last decade, the increase in fossil CO2 emissions and the decrease in net CO2 emissions from LUC approximately balance, leaving a near plateau in total CO2 emissions, while in 2024 both fossil and land-use change emissions grew.
The natural land sink was weaker in 2023 and 2024, but did not collapse
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased on average 2.5 parts per million (ppm) per year in the last ten years, increased 2.8 ppm in 2023, with another 2.8 ppm increase expected in 2024, to reach 423 ppm in 2024.
The increases in atmospheric CO2 were near record levels in 2023 and 2024, owing to the El Niño event that straddled 2023 and 2024. The land sink took up less carbon in 2023, with a preliminary estimate of a partial recovery in 2024 as the El Niño subsides.
“There have been recent fears of a collapse in the land sink in 2023 and 2024, but we find the changes are in line with expectations during an El Niño,” said Peters. “We see evidence of concerning changes in the land and ocean sinks in response to climate change, but little evidence of a collapse.”
“The last two years have been reminders of the important role the land surface plays in the carbon cycle”, said Kjetil Aas, a Senior Researcher at CICERO. “Large forest fires and reduced land sink due to El Niño have contributed to the rapid growth of atmospheric CO2 these years, and highlights that the land sink and the carbon stored on land is vulnerable in changing climate conditions”, said Aas.
Collective progress stalls, despite positive stories in several countries
Fossil CO2 emissions decreased in 22 countries representing 23% of global fossil CO2 emissions during the past decade (2014-2023) while their economies grew. We also see record levels of growth in solar, wind, electric vehicles, and other clean technologies.
“There are many signs of positive progress at the country level, and a feeling that a peak in global fossil CO2 emissions is imminent, but the global peak remains elusive,” said Peters.
“Climate action is a collective problem, and while gradual emission reductions are occurring in some countries, increases continue in others. Progress in all countries needs to accelerate fast enough to put global emissions on a downward trajectory towards net zero.”
About the Global Carbon Project: The Global Carbon Project is an international research project within the Future Earth research initiative on global sustainability, and a research partner of the World Climate Research Programme. It aims to develop a complete picture of the global carbon cycle, including both its biophysical and human dimensions together with the interactions and feedbacks between them. The Global Carbon Budget 2024 is the 19th edition of the annual update that started in 2006.
Footnotes:
1 This year the article is submitted as a discussion paper in open peer review, owing to the earlier UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP) and ensure broad community input. The data and methods build on the previous 18 editions.
2 The global fossil CO2 emission include CO2 emissions from the burning of coal, oil, and gas, and in chemical processes such as the production of cement. The global total also includes the small uptake from cement carbonation.
3 The 2024 emission projection is based on the use of monthly energy data, with the latest data between August and October, and we then make judgements about how emissions may develop for the remainder of the year.
4 Net CO2 emissions from land-use change refer to emissions, but also removals, from activities such as deforestation, re/afforestation, and wood harvest and regrowth. They exclude CO2 fluxes from vegetation in response to changing CO2 concentration and climate conditions.