An online survey experiment to examine whether and how public confidence in the military is affected by the military’s incompliance with civilian control amid an armed conflict

Scholars claim that public confidence in the military is influenced by the military’s compliance with civilian control, but evidence is scarce and conflicting. This study explored this relationship in Japan through a pre-registered online survey experiment. The results showed that the Japanese participants significantly lost confidence in their military when it deviated from civilian control, though the impact was highly context-dependent. These findings enhance the understanding of modern democracy and national and international security dynamics.

In democracies where civilian control is followed, the power to make crucial decisions, like those of national security, is mainly exercised by elected officials, allowing the citizens who elect them to influence such decisions indirectly. This role can give people a sense of participation in matters of national importance, potentially associated with their political trust. The military, in such cases, advises and helps these elected leaders in serving the nation, rather than assuming leadership itself. A balance between civilians and military organizations is, therefore, crucial for any democracy to thrive, and it is pointed out that civilian control is a requisite of democracy.

Existing studies of civil-military relations have indicated that the military’s compliance with civilian control is a determining factor in public confidence in the military. However, this claim has not been thoroughly developed theoretically and lacks empirical evidence. Additionally, a majority of relevant studies have focused on the US, leaving the relationship between public confidence in the military and civilian control in other political environments particularly poorly understood.

Against this backdrop, Sou Shinomoto, a Junior Researcher at the Waseda Institute of Political Economy, Waseda University, Japan, conducted an empirical study published online in the Journal of Peace Research on May 16, 2024. It investigated the causal relationship between the military’s compliance with civilian control and public confidence in the military. Moreover, the study examined whether and how the impact of deviation from civilian control on public trust differs in various settings: the directions of incompliance, the actors involved in control, and the respondents’ attributes.

Shinomoto emphasizes, “The relationship between civilians and military organizations is intricate and politically important, which has garnered significant attention. However, discussions on this topic are frequently based on impressionistic arguments rather than careful analysis of objective, verifiable data. This gap in the literature motivated my research.”

To this end, an online survey experiment was conducted among Japanese participants in November 2022. The study chose Japan as a research field since it is an established democracy with a considerable armed force. Participants were initially asked to provide their demographic and socioeconomic information, followed by questions regarding their political attitudes. Next, they were presented with a hypothetical scenario of an armed conflict between the USA and Iran, where a Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) unit was dispatched by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Prime Minister to provide logistical support to US forces. In the treatment condition scenarios, the commanding officer considered the mission unwise and chose to act contrary to civilian control, either through arbitrary action or inaction.

After reading the fictional scenario, participants rated their confidence in the JSDF. Subsequently, they were presented with additional information about how the Diet (Japan’s national legislature) was involved in controlling the JSDF regarding the mission. Upon reading the extra text, participants again indicated their confidence in the JSDF. The data obtained from the experiment were statistically analyzed.

Notably, participants significantly lost confidence in the JSDF when it violated civilian control, particularly when the commander chose to engage in battle without authorization. However, there was only a slight decline in confidence when the commander arbitrarily suspended the mission.
Surprisingly, the information about the Diet’s involvement did not significantly affect participants’ confidence assessments. This indifference could imply that the people in Japan possibly do not place much weight on the potential positive implications derived from the legislature’s involvement. Alternatively, they may not trust the Diet itself enough to expect such benefits from its involvement.

Moreover, there was no significant difference in post-treatment participants’ trust in the JSDF based on their political ideology, suggesting that ideology may not be sufficiently strong to serve as a social identity that generates in-group bias, at least in Japan.
Furthermore, compared to LDP supporters, non-LDP supporters lost less confidence in the JSDF when the commander of the dispatched unit arbitrarily suspended the mission. Conversely, regardless of their party support, participants almost homogeneously and considerably lost trust in the JSDF when the commander arbitrarily decided to engage in battle. Yet, the findings still indicate a slight partisan bias, highlighting concerns about its impact on public trust and possible broader ramifications.

Overall, these findings suggest that public confidence in the military is highly context-dependent. Elaborating further, Shinomoto says, “Even in Japan, which is a (supposed) established democracy, people don’t always firmly advocate for civilian control and, in turn, democracy. This raises concerns about democracy's stability in modern society. Additionally, this study offers insights into international security dynamics and facilitates further understanding of how people in Japan, with its rapid development of defense capabilities, view the military’s control and evaluate this organization.”

***

Reference

Authors: Sou Shinomoto

Title of original paper: Does the military lose public confidence without compliance with civilian control? Experimental evidence from Japan

Journal: Journal of Peace Research

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241231849

Affiliations:

Waseda Institute of Political Economy, Waseda University, Japan
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Japan