What if we could use the signals that we pick up on the horizon to map out potential risks that need policymakers’ attention? This is precisely the goal of the Joint Research Centre’s latest foresight study ‘Risks on the horizon’ that redefines the boundaries of anticipatory policy. The study aims to complement other risk assessment approaches to increase early warning and preparedness for unexpected developments and the risks they could create, or disasters they could lead to. Increased levels of preparedness are the key to better resilience.
What are we up against?
The study identified 40 future risks that decision makers in the EU should have on their radar, and potential future developments that might lead to them.
Developments in one area can have knock-on effects that are not linear or immediately obviously negative. Hazards, too, can have dynamic knock-on effects that spread across sectors with cascading impacts, highlighting how important holistic views of the risk landscape are.
In this study, the 40 risks have been grouped into 10 overarching risk clusters which can be used to help policymakers avoid blind spots. These include for example: ‘the risk of a breakdown of international cooperation; a decrease in people’s wellbeing; disrupted supply chains; the end of humans’ dominance; an erosion of democracy; the failure of the green transition; social division.’
The risks were evaluated in terms of their severity and scope through a Delphi survey. Only three out of the 40 risks identified were judged to be potentially existential, but they have the potential to impact humanity across generations. These risks are environmental degradation, environmental disasters, and a loss of power of humans—which could forever alter life as we know it. The report shows that while many of the 40 risks could be manageable should they materialise on their own, if they occur at the same time, they could pose grave danger to society.
It’s not all bad news!
The report does not stop at identifying risks but extends to the realm of opportunities. Potential future developments may lead to both risks and opportunities, and the report uncovers prospects for innovation, green leadership, and a more inclusive society.
For example, the risk of disrupted supply chains could bring about inflation, medical supply shortages, failure of critical infrastructures and an overall decrease in wellbeing. But if it induces a movement to a more circular economy, it could also reduce reliance on imported raw materials and it could boost innovation in the EU (to find substitutes that break the cycle of dependency on third parties).
What could the future look like?
To identify the 40 future risks and inspire policymakers, the Joint Research Centre developed snapshots of some potential future by combining signals of change coming up on the regular Horizon Scanning exercises.
By thinking ‘out-of-the-box' and considering alternative future developments, identifying these weak signals can help policies to be more resilient to future shocks, risks can be averted, and opportunities reaped.
Other foresight work
Interested in learning more about the risks ahead? The JRC has recently also published a report on cross-border and emerging risks in Europe, advocating for the incorporation of transboundary considerations in risk management strategies to effectively handle the interconnected and complex nature of today's risks.
Foresight, the use of collective intelligence to explore and anticipate possible future developments, is key to being aware of future shocks and opportunities. Integrating it into decision-making can make policies more future-proof.
What is the EU already doing?
Concretely, strategic foresight supports the Better Regulation Agenda, which ensures evidence-based, transparent EU law-making based on the views of those impacted.
For example, the foresight scenarios for EU Rural Areas 2040 outlined by the JRC directly informed the Commission’s Communication on the Long Term Vision for Rural Areas, which identified areas of action towards stronger, connected, resilient and prosperous rural areas and communities.
JRC foresight studies on the Future professional roles of Farmers by 2040, the future of Customs in the EU and the Future of Jobs is Green are also informing and inspiring long-term strategies on major policy issues.
JRC report: Risks on the horizon
Other JRC foresight activities