Incentivising environmentally sustainable protein production and transitioning towards healthier diets can help improve EU protein self-sufficiency, reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and improve overall sustainability.

The EU’s demand for protein-rich food and feed is sustained by an import dependency on high-protein feed from third countries, exposing both EU producers and consumers to global price fluctuations and supply chain vulnerabilities. Moreover, high-protein feed such as imported soya bean meal is associated with expansion of agricultural land and deforestation, raising environmental concerns.

To support both the policy and public debate on the EU’s dependence on imported protein-rich products, a new JRC study explored four hypothetical scenarios reshaping the EU's protein supply and demand. By evaluating the individual and combined impacts of these scenarios, JRC scientists explored potential pathways to reduce EU dependency on global markets and increase its protein self-sufficiency.

In parallel to the publication of this JRC study, the Commission released four factsheets on the supply and demand of proteins for food and feed, reporting on the interventions of the common agricultural policy (CAP) to decrease the EU deficit in plant proteins. These factsheets describe EU research and innovation activities in the field of supply and demand of protein, and highlight initiatives that Member States are taking with regard to their protein policies.

Currently, 20 CAP Strategic Plans use coupled income support for protein crops. Almost all Member States have planned at least one eco-scheme or agri-environment and climate commitments intervention in their CAP Strategic Plans to promote the inclusion of protein crops in arable cropping systems, due to the climatic and environmental benefits these provide.

The EU livestock sector consumes approximately 71 million tonnes of crude protein in feed annually, 24% of which is imported. Part of this is high-protein feed, which is vital for optimising animal growth and productivity. Currently, 66% of the EU’s high-protein feed is imported, and most notably, 96% of its soya bean meal – the EU’s primary high-protein feed – comes from outside the EU. This dependency on imported protein sources exposes the EU to global market volatility, including price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions.

Addressing the EU’s protein gap calls for both economic and environmental approaches, fostering competitiveness and sustainability.

What are the options and the benefits?
By exploring synergies and trade-offs within a food systems approach, JRC scientists assessed the individual and combined impacts of four hypothetical scenarios for the EU:

1. Providing specific support for protein crop production;
2. Changing livestock feed practices;
3. Restructuring the livestock herd;
4. Transitioning towards more plant-based diets.

The results reveal that a combination of these approaches that address both EU supply and demand factors can significantly reduce the EU’s dependence on imported protein feed, while also achieving environmental benefits. According to this combined scenario, agricultural GHG emissions in the EU would decline by 5.6%. This decrease is mainly driven by lower methane and nitrous oxide emissions from enteric fermentation, and manure management and application. The reduction entails a 6.6% reduction in agricultural methane and a 3.3% decline in nitrous oxide emissions.

Among the assessed scenarios, a shift towards more plant-based diets emerges as the most transformative, markedly reducing the protein demand for animal feed and lowering agricultural GHG emissions.
While measures such as increasing coupled income support for protein crops and adopting low-nitrogen feeding strategies may offer more modest gains, they still help enhance the profitability and competitiveness of crops such as soya beans and pulses.

The results of the scenario analysis clearly demonstrate that reducing the EU's reliance on imported feed protein and achieving substantial environmental improvements requires protein supply and demand to be addressed together. This calls for a comprehensive approach that accounts for the complex interactions within the agricultural sector and the broader food system.

Related links
Closing the EU protein gap – drivers, synergies and trade-offs (report)

Reducing the plant protein deficit of the European Union (news)

Reducing the plant protein deficit of the European Union (factsheets)