Heating and cooling systems remain a major source of air pollution across the continent. A JRC study underscores the urgent need to accelerate the adoption of cleaner, more efficient, and renewable technologies in this sector.

Air pollution remains a critical environmental challenge in the EU, with the heating and cooling sector significantly contributing to the release of harmful pollutants. These emissions include 73% of particulate matter (PM_2.5), 33% of nitrogen oxides (NOx), 2% ammonia (NH₃), 18% of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), 61% of carbon monoxide (CO) and 49% of sulphur dioxide (SO₂) - all of which pose serious health risks. Buildings and our homes are a key source of these pollutants.

Following the revision of the Ambient Air Quality Directive, several Member States will need to deploy additional efforts to comply with the more stringent air quality 2030 targets, as the EU has aligned its standards more closely with the World Health Organization’s (WHO) air quality guideline levels.

In this situation, correctly identifying the drivers behind air pollution is crucial for selecting and recommending cleaner alternatives to current practices.

Despite a gradual shift to less polluting energy sources for heating in the EU, combustion devices emitting pollutants still dominate the energy mix, accounting for 97% of heat production in 2022, according to a JRC study.

The last two decades have seen progress in the quality and efficiency of European heating. While the EU27 decreased its overall gross final energy consumption (GFEC) in 2022 (latest data available at the time of the study) by 9.5% compared to 2005, consumption for heating and cooling has performed better, reducing by 16% over the same period. This is in part due to lower energy needs for heating buildings and partly to more efficient heating appliances.

The use of heat pumps, with no direct pollutant emissions, has increased six-fold since 2005, currently accounting for 3.7% of gross final energy consumption. While the heating and cooling sector achieved a 25% renewable energy share in 2022, heat pumps still represent a relatively small portion, contributing only 15%.

Pollutant emissions from heating are dominated by the residential sector (85% of PM_2.5, 82% of NMVOC, 79% of ammonia and 76% of CO) showing the need for more stringent pollution emission limits to be set for appliances sold for use in this sector. The analysis shows that this is particularly relevant for biomass for PM_2.5 and gas and biomass for NOx.

Building on earlier research on small-scale combustion and ongoing efforts to improve air pollutant emission estimates in the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), the study pinpoints key factors influencing emissions:

• the type of fuel used (such as natural gas, wood, oil, pellets, or electricity),
• the technology employed (like stoves, chimneys, boilers or heat pumps),
• the overall efficiency of these systems.

National Energy and Climate Plans
The study also analysed both 2019 National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), and the 2023 draft NECPs which outline how EU countries intend to meet their energy and climate targets for 2030. The findings show an increase in renewable targets.

For instance, Sweden aims to further increase its renewable energy contribution in heating and cooling compared to the contribution outlined in its 2019 NECP, reaching a share of 73% by 2030, while Denmark, aiming for a 77% share, shows the largest increase in percentage points (17 pp) comparing its two NECP submissions.

However, 12 Member States still fall short of new EU requirements and many countries still project 2030 renewable shares below expected levels. The Commission has issued recommendations on the draft updated NECPs, including where relevant, on the need to increase the ambition for renewables. Member States are now finalising their NECPs, taking into account the Commission recommendations.

Heat pump use is set to rise 22% by 2030, based on 2023 NECP drafts, whereas biomass heating projections have only slightly increased, with some countries reducing targets due to air quality concerns.
These findings highlight the complex and multifaced challenge for the EU efforts to balance energy needs with air quality and decarbonisation goals.

Indeed, while progress has been made in renewable adoption and energy efficiency, the continued reliance on fossil fuels and biomass in heating systems poses ongoing air quality risks.

Background and policy relevance
The EU has adopted a comprehensive strategy to combat air pollution, combining regulatory measures, strategic initiatives and a strong emphasis on renewable energy and energy efficiency.

The EU’s updated energy framework, reflected in the recent revisions of Renewable Energy Directive, the Energy Efficiency Directive and the Energy Performance in Buildings Directive, along with the Net Zero Industry Act, provides a strong policy signal to support clean heating solutions. It promotes the adoption of efficient district heating and heat pumps while setting the path for the gradual phase-out of fossil fuel-based boilers.

Related links
Air pollution trends in the heating and cooling sector in the EU-27: A forward look to 2030
Air quality directive (revised)
WHO global air quality guidelines
Zero pollution action plan
Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research