As 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming is reached, climate science must look to the future, writes Aditi Mukherji, director of CGIAR’s Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Impact Action Platform and IPCC author.
[NAIROBI] By the time the world’s leading climate scientists publish their next report in 2028-29, the world will already have possibly breached 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial era for a few years and the deadline for the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals will be on the horizon.
The threshold set by the 2015 Paris Agreement to reduce the impacts of climate change was passed for the first time in 2024, the EU’s climate change service, Copernicus, confirmed last week (10 January).
So, as the next assessment of climate science from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) gets under way, it’s vital that we answer the questions that will serve us in the future. Navigating the challenges of tomorrow requires forward-looking science today and in the months ahead.
Central to our mission to limit climate change are the communities and sectors most vulnerable to its impacts, especially agriculture and smallholder farmers, who play a critical role in feeding the world yet are particularly exposed to the effects of climate change.
The next cycle of climate science must therefore fill the gaps in evidence and solutions that reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture while also ensuring farming remains viable in a warmer, less predictable world.
We know that food systems are a major contributor to climate change, accounting for about a third of global greenhouse gas emissions. The sector clearly needs to transition to more sustainable means of food production, consumption, and disposal to support global emissions reductions.
However, food systems are also vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Agricultural losses from climate-related disasters totalled US$3.8 trillion in the past 30 years, with the highest relative losses in the poorest countries. A 2 degrees Celsius increase in temperatures will worsen already serious long-term food insecurity in many countries, putting up to 80 million people at risk of hunger by 2050.
Burning questions
This coming cycle of IPCC assessments must answer at least three core questions related to the agri-food systems and climate change to help the world move from understanding the climate crisis to tackling it with utmost urgency.
The first question for climate scientists is how to make best use of existing technologies that help farmers combat and cope with climate change—and increase their adoption and use.
Innovations to help farmers adapt to new conditions, such as digital climate information services and climate-resilient crops, already exist along with developments like solar-powered irrigation pumps and low-emission forages, or feeds, that reduce farming’s carbon footprint. But they are not reaching farmers at the scale needed to make a difference.
How to more effectively channel climate finance, resources and support from wealthier countries to roll out these innovations in low- and middle-income countries is a science question.
Similarly, we also need to assess which tools and technologies will enable farmers to adapt to warmer conditions in the future. Previous IPCC research cycles have shown that the ability to adapt to climate change becomes increasingly difficult as temperatures continue to rise. Scientists need to investigate which crop, livestock, or fishery adaptations will remain viable at 1.5 degrees Celsius or beyond.
The second question for climate scientists is how to make low-emissions technologies cost-effective and accessible.
For farmers to have the best chance of adapting and avoiding future losses, it’s crucial that global temperatures stabilise and this requires emissions to come down, including those from agriculture.
However, unlike the energy sector, which has benefited from research and innovation into renewable sources like solar energy, the agriculture sector has lagged on investments into research and development for low-emission technologies.
We urgently need to identify emerging and promising fields of research as well as the policies, infrastructure and governance needed to make clean technologies affordable and widely available.
Finally, scientists need to tackle the question of how to accelerate carbon dioxide removal to complement emissions reductions.
As temperatures rise, the natural ability of land and oceans to sequester carbon weakens, intensifying the need for human-led carbon dioxide removal (CDR). However, interventions like afforestation could reduce agricultural land, particularly in lower-income countries, posing risks to food security. Climate scientists must map the impacts of both higher temperatures and large-scale CDR efforts on food systems and livelihoods to chart a course that does not jeopardise food security.
Future-facing science
The decisions shaped by the IPCC’s reports will define how the world navigates the unprecedented challenges of a rapidly warming planet, especially as it approaches the conclusion of this pivotal decade.
As IPCC report authors, our role extends beyond delivering insights; we must provide actionable, evidence-based, future-facing science to empower governments to act decisively and effectively. This includes equipping innovators and policymakers to harness climate finance, tailor solutions to local contexts, and prepare for future temperature rises.
Most of all, we must not forget climate justice as the guiding principle of this green transition. Ensuring that the most vulnerable — often also the least responsible — remain front and centre of our plans can help to achieve an inclusive future where no one is left behind.
This piece was produced by SciDev.Net’s Global desk.
Aditi Mukherji is director of CGIAR’s Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Impact Action Platform and a contributor to reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).