A major £4.25m project will aim to understand and predict ‘tipping points’ in marine ecosystems, and their consequences and opportunities for the UK, particularly for the fishing industry.

Led by the University of East Anglia (UEA), the work has been awarded a grant by the UK Government’s Advanced Research + Invention Agency (ARIA), an R&D funding agency created to pursue research at the edge of what is scientifically and technologically possible and to unlock breakthroughs that benefit everyone.

The project - ‘Forecasting Tipping points In Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Responses’ (TiMBER) - is a collaboration between UEA, Cefas, the National Oceanography Centre (NOC), the Institute of Computing for Climate Science (ICCS) at the University of Cambridge, and the Scottish Association for Marine Science (SAMS).

They are one of 27 international teams awarded funding under ARIA’s £81m Forecasting Tipping Points programme, a five-year effort to detect the earliest signs of climate tipping points - the key thresholds that, when crossed, lead to large, accelerating and practically irreversible changes in the climate system.

The consequences of climate tipping points could be devastating, potentially exposing half a billion people globally to annual flooding events, and triggering severe repercussions for our biodiversity, food security, agriculture, and more.

TiMBER will focus on the North Atlantic, which is known to be vulnerable to physical climate tipping points. Little is known about tipping points in marine ecosystems, but they would have profound socio-economic implications for the UK, especially for the fishing industry.

Tipping points in marine ecosystems have occurred in the past and are expected in the future, for example in response to industrialised cod overfishing in the North West Atlantic in the 1980s, or in response to changing climate conditions during the geological past.

TiMBER’s lead R&D Creator Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor of Climate Change Science at UEA, said: “Given the serious implications of tipping points, our research is both timely and necessary and we welcome the opportunity provided by this grant. By helping the UK anticipate, prepare for and respond to marine changes, TiMBER will support sustainable and resilient fisheries.

“Here we bring together a world-class team of researchers from different disciplines including experienced policy advisors, to develop the tools and understanding necessary to assess the risks of tipping points in marine ecosystems and their consequences and opportunities for the UK.

“Tackling the challenges of climate change requires novel approaches and thinking differently about what might be possible. This is what we aim to do through TiMBER.”

Co-led by Programme Directors Gemma Bale and Sarah Bohndiek, ARIA’s Forecasting Tipping Points programme looks to create an early warning system capable of equipping us with the information, understanding and time we need to accelerate proactive climate adaptation and mitigation.

As part of this, and building on the UK’s strong modelling capability, TiMBER will develop an Ocean Systems Model and apply it, together with new and existing data from ARIA and AI methods, to assess the risks of tipping points in marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry.

It will identify early warning indicators for ‘sentinel’ marine species - those that are sensitive to climate or to changes in ecosystems - and recommend strategies for cost-effective monitoring networks and for adaptation.

TiMBER will also quantify the implications of tipping points on the ocean’s uptake of carbon emissions from human activities.

Dr Bryony Townhill, Principal Climate Change Scientist at Cefas said: “Cefas is excited to be collaborating with our partners on TiMBER. This project provides a great opportunity to combine and build on our modelling tools to predict potential risks in the North Atlantic.

“By bringing together our expertise across different aspects of marine ecosystem and biogeochemistry to understand the potential impacts and opportunities in the UK, we hope to translate that into practical advice to support the fisheries and aquaculture sectors adapt to the impacts of climate change.”

The grant, of which UEA will receive £1.62m, is the university’s first under the ARIA initiative, with the project due to start on April 1. This funding is subject to final contract negotiation.

Professor Julian Blow, Pro-Vice-Chancellor Research and Innovation at UEA, said: “I’m delighted that our expertise in climate science research has been recognised with the awarding of this grant, in collaboration with key partners who are also leaders in their respective fields.

“Working together, this fundamental project aims to contribute significant insights that will hopefully underpin much-needed action on climate adaptation and mitigation.”