The Arctic is vast, cold, and largely uninhabited – an expanse of ice, sea, and sparse settlements. For decades, the region was characterized by peaceful cooperation among Arctic states. However, as geopolitical tensions rise, the Arctic’s strategic significance has increased. China, located 2,000 km south of the Arctic, has shown a growing interest in the far north. But what is Beijing’s Arctic agenda?

A Treasure Trove of Natural Resources
The Arctic’s icy expanse conceals more than just Russian nuclear submarines – it also holds valuable resources, including crucial metals and minerals, oil, and natural gas.
'China sees the Arctic as an opportunity for resource access,' says Iselin Stensdal, a researcher on Chinese energy policy at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, Norway. 'But at the same time, Chinese officials frequently stress the importance of environmental protection in the region.'
According to Stensdal, China’s interest in the Arctic is not surprising.

'China has great power ambitions, and being a global power means engaging everywhere in the world. With large ambitions and the ability to act on them, it’s natural for China to dedicate some resources to the Arctic,' she explains.
However, how you view the world depends on where you sit. For Norway, a small Arctic state, China’s interest in the region is highly significant. But for China, which aims to play a role worldwide, the Arctic is just one of many areas of focus.
'In fact, China’s interest in the Arctic seems to be declining,' Stensdal notes. 'China published an Arctic policy in 2018, declaring itself a ‘near-Arctic’ state. This terminology sparked criticism among Western Arctic nations, and China has since largely abandoned the phrase.'

No Polar Silk Road
Many believed China would invest heavily in developing a shortcut through the Arctic for trade with Europe. However, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) has not become the maritime highway some envisioned. In 2021, China’s state-owned shipping giant COSCO set a record with 14 trans-Arctic voyages. But since 2022, no Chinese companies have used the NSR to transport goods from Asia to Western Europe.
Instead, the NSR has become crucial for trade in and out of the Russian Arctic.
'Trade between Russian European ports – such as Murmansk– and China has increased, particularly due to oil exports,' says Erdem Lamazhapov, a PhD researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute specializing in China-Russia relations in the Arctic.
'This is a major shift. A Chinese company operating a container route between Saint Petersburg and China has even been accused of sabotage against infrastructure between Estonia and Finland,' Lamazhapov notes.

China Helps Russia Find New Markets
While Europe has imposed strict sanctions on Russia, China and India have continued trading with Moscow. Before 2023, crude oil was rarely transported through the Arctic due to high costs, making it more profitable to sell elsewhere. But China has helped Russia by creating alternative markets for sanctioned goods, including oil.
Initially, Russia’s Arctic liquefied natural gas (LNG) was intended for Asian markets. However, since 2022, a significant portion has been redirected to Europe due to high prices following reduced Russian pipeline gas exports. Chinese companies have played a crucial role in keeping Russian LNG projects operational, including Arctic LNG 2.

Russia Opens the Door, China Hesitates
China’s relationship with Russia is complex, but the Russian Arctic remains one of the few areas where China can access strategic resources and transport routes.
Russia has invited China to collaborate on the NSR, including shipbuilding and insurance solutions. However, Beijing has been cautious about taking on a larger role.
'It is impossible to use the NSR without dealing with Russia. Ships need Russian permits and often require Russian icebreaker assistance,' Lamazhapov explains.
Insurance challenges, especially since 2022, have further complicated the use of the NSR. As a result, Chinese businesses have been reluctant to rely on the route for trade with the West.

Cautious Moves in the Russian Arctic
Chinese companies are wary of reputational risks and potential sanctions from other countries.
'A key episode in this saga is the negotiation of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which Russia desperately needs to save Gazprom,' Lamazhapov says.
The state-owned Gazprom has long been a cornerstone of Russia’s economy and geopolitical strategy. However, after losing European customers due to the war against Ukraine, the company has suffered significant financial losses. Power of Siberia 2 was supposed to boost exports to China, but the deal remains unsigned.
'In March 2023, President Putin claimed he and President Xi had agreed on ‘almost all the details.’ But the agreement never materialized, likely because China was dissatisfied with the price or the route through Mongolia,' Lamazhapov explains.
Although China sees strategic advantages in deepening ties with Russia’s Arctic, commercial considerations take precedence. China will not invest in unprofitable ventures.

A Seat at the Table
'China doesn’t see cooperation and competition as mutually exclusive,' Lamazhapov notes. 'On the one hand, Beijing seeks partnerships with Arctic states. On the other, it aims to strengthen its own position.'
China became an observer in the Arctic Council in 2013, granting it access to discussions on climate and resource management in the north.
'Securing a seat at the table has been important for China, which views itself as a global power. It wants to be seen as a serious player in the region,' Lamazhapov says.

Superpowers Enter the Arctic
China’s Arctic presence has also raised concerns among other Arctic nations. Russia has previously expressed skepticism about China’s ambitions, while the United States has become increasingly focused on Chinese activities in the region.
'This is about more than resources – it’s about great power competition,' Lamazhapov explains.
'The U.S. barely paid attention to Arctic security and geopolitical issues before China became interested,' says Andreas Østhagen, a senior researcher at FNI specializing in Arctic geopolitics. 'Now that China is more engaged, Washington is paying closer attention.'
'In international debates, people sometimes assume the Arctic is a blank slate where countries can simply stake claims,' Østhagen adds. 'But the Arctic is not unclaimed land where great powers can freely grab resources. All borders in the Arctic are settled.'

Norway: A Small State with Strong Arctic Influence
Norway is a small country but a significant Arctic player, with sovereignty over vast northern waters and a strong presence in international Arctic governance. As an Arctic state, Norway must navigate China’s growing interest in the region. Chinese investments present opportunities for cooperation but also potential challenges, especially as China and the U.S. pursue competing Arctic strategies.
'Norway needs to strike a balance between collaboration and protecting its own Arctic interests,' Stensdal says.

Norway must weigh economic opportunities against environmental risks and security concerns, as increased Arctic activity could have lasting consequences.
As the Arctic becomes a geopolitical chessboard, Norway must navigate shifting alliances, resource competition, and the environmental stakes of an increasingly contested region.
'The Arctic is just one piece of China’s broader strategy to expand its global influence,' Lamazhapov notes. While China engages when it suits its interests, its Arctic approach remains strategic – engaging when beneficial, but always with long-term influence in mind.

References:

• Erdem Lamazhapov and Arild Moe: Russia’s Geopolitical Position in the Arctic: What’s New? Strategic Analysis, Published online 04.03.2025, 15 p. Summary.
• Erdem Lamazhapov: Polar Contradictions: China’s Dialectical Thinking About the Arctic. Geopolitics, 2024.Summary.
• Iselin Stensdal and Gørild Heggelund (eds.): China-Russia Relations in the Arctic: Friends in the Cold? Palgrave Macmillan, 2024.Summary.