In a recent study published in Engineering, researchers have developed an innovative analytical framework for ecological security assessment, prediction, and zoning management. Guided by the Social–Economic–Natural Complex Ecosystems (SENCE) theory, this framework aims to enhance ecological security for sustainable development.

The Daqing River Basin in the North China Plain was chosen as a case study due to its ecological significance and the increasing human-land conflicts. The research team established an assessment index system based on the pressure-state-response (PSR) model. For the pressure level, indicators like population density, nightlight index, and human interference index were selected. Net primary productivity, patch density, and Shannon diversity indices represented the state level, while the response level was indicated by the proportions of tertiary industries, nature reserve areas, and ecosystem service values.

The results showed a significant improvement in the overall ecological security of the Daqing River Basin from 2000 to 2020. It shifted from a “Moderate” level to a “Relatively Safe” level. Approximately 62% of the basin witnessed an improvement in ecological security levels during this period. However, spatial heterogeneity persisted. The northwestern and eastern regions had higher ecological security, while the central region, especially major urban areas in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei provinces, had lower ecological security.

Using the GM(1,1) model, the researchers predicted the ecological security trends. From 2025 to 2040, the overall ecological security of the basin is expected to continue improving and remain at the “Relatively Safe” level. But spatial heterogeneity will be further aggravated, as the ecological security in major urban areas will likely deteriorate.

To address these issues, the study proposed multi-scale ecological security management zones. At the regional scale, the basin was divided into western, central, and eastern zones. Each zone has its own regulatory strategies, such as soil and water conservation in the western zone, cultivated land protection in the central zone, and wetland protection in the eastern zone. At the county scale, 81 counties were classified into 5 distinct ecological management zones, including the mountain and wetland zone, plain zones, and urban zones, with tailored strategies for each.

This research provides a valuable reference for ecological governance in river basins and other regions facing similar human-land conflict issues. It also contributes to the theoretical development of ecological security research by integrating social, economic, and natural elements. Although the study has its limitations, such as not fully exploring the complex synergies and trade-offs between pressure, state, and response elements, it sets a solid foundation for future research in this field.

The paper “Ecological Security Assessment, Prediction, and Zoning Management: An Integrated Analytical Framework,” authored by Bo Nan, Yujia Zhai, Mengmeng Wang, Hongjie Wang, Baoshan Cui. Full text of the open access paper: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2024.11.032. For more information about the Engineering, follow us on X (https://twitter.com/EngineeringJrnl) & like us on Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/EngineeringJrnl).