The researchers, led by Prof Dr Jakob Kapeller of the Institute for Socioeconomics (ifso), conclude that Germany can still achieve its climate targets in the building sector – if the "inertia in implementing a socio-ecological transformation" is overcome.

Buildings are a major source of CO₂ emissions, but also offer significant potential for savings. Contrary to assumptions, the authors of the study say that the current renovation rate of 1.5% is not enough to make residential buildings carbon neutral by 2050. They call for a doubling of the renovation rate to three per cent, a parallel shift to fossil-free heat and power, and the avoidance of new resource-intensive buildings wherever possible. In addition, older and dilapidated buildings should be prioritised for refurbishment over more modern existing buildings.

Specifically, they propose to make financial support for the refurbishment of private dwellings dependent on assets and to prevent the costs of refurbishment from being unilaterally passed on to tenants. Government loans, training programmes and transparent costing should facilitate implementation.

The results and the measures derived from them are based on a code that the researchers have made publicly available on GitHub – an algorithm that is intended to serve as a basis for carrying out similar calculations for other countries. 'We have already received signals of interest from England,' says Jan David Weber (UDE), one of the authors of the study. 'As long as the relevant data is available, it will be possible to calculate the need for renovation and the economic impact for regions or even Europe as a whole.'
The study was commissioned by Dezernat Zukunft, a non-profit organisation based in Berlin, Germany.