VENICE - Climate change presents an unprecedented challenge for European vintners, particularly for the over 1,000 protected designations of origin. In Italy, these include the production of DOC and DOCG wines, which account for 35% of the EU total, with France at 31%. Geographical Indications provide a legal framework for the protection and recognition of specific products that are closely associated with distinct geographical areas, traditions, and established production methods put to the test by changing climatic conditions.

A study published in Nature Communications, led by Ca' Foscari University of Venice and Eurac Research in Bozen/Bolzano, has for the first time mapped the vulnerability of these European wines. The research considers not only various climate scenarios but also the regulatory frameworks and socio-economic resources of each wine-growing region.

In terms of the degree to which climate is projected to change, the Geographical Indications the higher exposure will be in Romania, Croatia, Bulgaria, Italy and Hungary. The lowest levels of exposure were found in areas with a strong oceanic influence, such as Portugal or the Canary Islands, or located at higher latitudes, such as Belgium and the Netherlands. If we consider the historical climatic conditions of traditional grape varieties in different regions, southern European areas are particularly vulnerable to changes. This sensitivity is due to strict regulations on the varieties that can be cultivated and the fact that these regions are often nearing the maximum temperature limits suitable for existing grape varieties.

Researchers also calculated the adaptive capacity of each Geographical Indication, i.e., the possibility of deploying actions and resources capable of coping with new climatic conditions, taking into account 15 indicators. Among the socio-ecological parameters analysed were population structure, financial solidity, human resource skills, and the natural characteristics of the territory that allow for greater adaptability.

Various groups of wine regions are emerging, showing different levels of vulnerability. Five percent of European wine regions face the most significant risks in the coming decades, not only because of climatic conditions but also due to a lack of resources to adapt. Among these are Trebbiano d'Abruzzo and Lambrusco Mantovano in Italy, as well as the Sierra de Salamanca in Spain.

For three other groups, vulnerability is high, but not at the level of the worst group. These comprise 25% of European wine regions and include appellations such as Côtes de Provence (France), Conegliano Valdobbiadene Prosecco (Italy), Alentejo (Portugal) and Rioja (Spain) and some appellations in central Italy (e.g. Colli Maceratesi and Colline Teramane Montepulciano d'Abruzzo).

The moderate and low-risk groups comprise approximately 70% of the regions, including Côtes d'Auvergne and Alsace in France, Rheinhessen in Germany, and Alto Adige in Italy. For many of these regions, their adaptive capacity is key. They have the potential resources to adapt to environmental changes, such as moving to higher altitudes or investing in advanced technologies.

‘The more than one thousand European geographical indications hugely differ not only in environmental, climatic and processing conditions but also in their cultural values and traditions. All these elements contribute to defining the Terroir of a region,‘ explains Sebastian Candiago, who worked on the study during his PhD in Science and Management of Climate Change at Ca’ Foscari University of Venice and is now a researcher at the University of Bayreuth, Germany. ‘Climate change presents a significant challenge for vintners because vines are perennial crops that rely on specific local conditions for growth. Additionally, modifying production specifications can be quite difficult. Therefore, both flexibility and foresight are essential. Our research aims to identify which wine-growing regions are likely to face the most challenges, ensuring they continue to offer economic, environmental, cultural, and identity value.

In some cases, the solution may be found in strategies such as canopy management, use of irrigation, modification of vineyard structure, selection of rootstocks or the use of cover crops. In other cases, it will be necessary to change the rules more thoroughly. Specifications are made to regulate be long lasting, but they are not eternal. This is evident in Bordeaux, France, where an experiment has been introduced to explore the use of grape varieties like Touriga Nacional, which are typical of Portugal and better suited to warmer climates. This could help the wine region become more resilient to future changes.

The research results are available online through an interactive map that allows users to analyse each protected designation of origin in Europe and its characteristics.(https://winemap.eurac.edu/?vulnerability=true).