Researchers explore how political ideologies and protest aversion drive the spread of pro-China illiberal narratives in Japan

Illiberal pro-China narratives serve as sharp power tools, influencing democratic societies. Researchers analyzed Twitter (now X) data and conducted experiments on political ideology and aversion to protests. Findings show both left- and right-wing groups engage with these narratives. Notably, right-wing individuals, despite criticizing China, accept illiberal narratives when triggered by protest aversion. Further experiments confirm that those strongly averse to protests resist liberal narratives, revealing a key vulnerability in Japan’s political discourse.

Illiberal pro-China narratives have gained traction in democratic countries like Japan, raising questions about how such narratives spread across political ideologies. Social media has become a key tool in this process, blurring the lines between traditional propagandists and their audiences. Ordinary citizens and astroturfing agents^[1] within the target countries are now actively engaged in interpreting and disseminating propaganda, making participatory propaganda increasingly relevant in today’s information landscape. Although research has explored the nature of these narratives and their propagators, little is known about which segments of the population in democratic countries are most receptive to them.

To address this, researchers led by Professor Tetsuro Kobayashi from Waseda University, along with Dr. Fujio Toriumi from University of Tokyo, Dr. Mitsuo Yoshida from University of Tsukuba, and Dr. Takeshi Sakaki from University of Tokyo, analyzed Twitter data and conducted experiments to explore how China’s illiberal framing of the 2019 Hong Kong protests—portrayed as a US-backed riot instigated by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the National Endowment for Democracy (NED)—gained traction in Japan. The study, published in the Chinese Journal of Communication on March 21, 2025, aimed to understand how this narrative was received and propagated within Japan’s political landscape.

The team utilized computational social science analyses of Twitter (now X) to examine how the narrative framing the Hong Kong protests as a US-backed riot, instigated by the CIA and NED, have been embraced and disseminated by different political ideological fractions in Japan. “Our findings revealed that the illiberal narrative was accepted and propagated by both left- and right-wing users,” says Kobayashi. The left-wing groups, influenced by historical ties and a tendency towards socialism, were more inclined to support pro-China narratives. Whereas, the right-wing groups associated the Hong Kong protests with domestic leftist movements, interpreting them negatively and creating an opportunity for the acceptance of pro-China narratives.

Additionally, the researchers conducted an online experiment to explore how exposure to these narratives influenced people's attitudes. The experiment identified Japan's cultural aversion to protests as a vulnerability that facilitates the spread of such narratives.

“Our study suggests that in the context of the discursive struggle over the Hong Kong protests in Japan, the spread of illiberal narratives is not confined to one side of the ideological divide, rather it has the potential to encompass both sides,” explains Kobayashi.

Overall, the findings of this study are significant in demonstrating that narratives from authoritarian states do not always divide public opinion in democratic countries, but can sometimes be shared across ideological divides. In the case of Japan, the cultural aversion to protests appears to distort the understanding of overseas pro-democracy movements, fostering attitudes that are more favorable toward authoritarian systems. This highlights the importance of recognizing such dynamics, especially in light of the global trend of democratic backsliding. “Our study suggests the need to reconsider the role of non-electoral political participation, such as protests and social movements, in preserving democratic values,” concludes Kobayashi.


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DOI: 10.1080/17544750.2025.2480060

Title of original paper: Cross-ideological acceptance of illiberal narrative of the 2019 Hong Kong protests in Japan: Aversion to protests as a key facilitator

Journal: Chinese Journal of Communication

Authors: Tetsuro Kobayashi^a, F. Toriumi^b, M. Yoshida^c, and T. Sakaki^d

Affiliations
^aSchool of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan
^bSchool of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
^cInstitute of Business Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tokyo, Japan
^dInstitute for Future Initiatives, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan